Market Focus Shifts To Us Data
In US data, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls showed net job growth of 178K in March versus forecasts of 60K. With many markets shut for Easter Monday, attention turned to the US ISM Services PMI, expected to slow moderately in March while still indicating expansion. Technically, EUR/USD was trading in the mid-1.1500s with neutral to slightly negative short-term bias. The 4-hour RSI edged towards 50 and the MACD moved closer to its signal line, with a shrinking histogram. Resistance sits near 1.1570, then 1.1630–1.1640, and the March 10 high at 1.1667. Support is just above 1.1500, then around 1.1445 and near 1.1410. We’ve seen the Euro struggle against the Dollar, trading in a tight range near 1.0750 for weeks. This is a far cry from the action we saw this time in 2025, when the pair failed to break above the 1.1570 resistance level. That failure last year set a bearish tone that has largely persisted.Strategy Ideas For Low Volatility Conditions
Last year, we saw short-lived Dollar weakness on hopes of a peace deal in Iran, but that sentiment quickly faded. Today’s focus is squarely on central bank policy, with US inflation stubbornly holding around 3.1%, keeping the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path. In contrast, with Eurozone inflation at a more manageable 2.5%, the European Central Bank has little reason to match the Fed’s tone. Given the current sleepy price action, traders should consider selling volatility. The range between 1.0700 and 1.0800 has been firm, making strategies like selling strangles attractive to collect premium. This echoes the choppy, directionless market we observed in spring 2025 when the pair was trapped below 1.1570. The underlying pressure remains on the downside due to the interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone. For those with existing long Euro positions, buying out-of-the-money puts could serve as a cost-effective hedge against a sudden break below the 1.0700 support. We saw how quickly strong US data, like the surprise 178K NFP print from March 2025, can reinforce the dollar’s strength. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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