US index futures steadied after early-session gains in Asia and London. Dow and S&P 500 futures moved back above their central pivots, while Nasdaq futures stayed below its pivot, leaving its recovery less complete. Into New York, the focus is on whether price holds above resistance or rotates back into the value area. VIX is near its central pivot at 26.38, so short-term volatility direction may affect how far equities can extend.

Key Index Levels Overview

Dow futures trade at 46,799, with TPO POC 46,760 and VPOC 46,792, inside VAH/VAL 46,820/46,670. Key levels are CP 46,600, UG 46,764–46,866, UR 47,297, LG 46,415–46,301, and LR 45,818. S&P 500 futures trade at 6,667, with TPO POC 6,667 and CP/VPOC 6,627, inside VAH/VAL 6,680/6,655, and up about 0.52% in London. Levels include UG 6,659–6,679, UR 6,764, LG 6,597–6,578, and LR 6,500. Nasdaq futures trade at 24,532, up about 0.54% in London, with TPO POC 24,500 and VPOC 24,526, below CP 24,579, inside VAH/VAL 24,550/24,475. Levels include UG 24,690–24,759, LG 24,475–24,412, UR 25,051, and LR 24,142. VIX trades at 26.25, with CP 26.38, UG 27.80–28.68, and LG 24.80–23.54. The market is trying to repair itself, but we need to watch the Volatility Index (VIX) very closely. The Dow and S&P 500 are in a better spot, but the Nasdaq is lagging behind. This divergence tells us that conviction is low, and the next move depends entirely on whether fear, measured by the VIX, subsides. Our main signal for the coming weeks will be the VIX pivot at 26.38. If volatility stays above this level, we should consider buying protection, like put options on the Nasdaq-100 (via QQQ), which is showing the most weakness. If the VIX breaks down below 25 and heads toward the lower gate near 23.54, that would be a clear signal to reduce defensive positions and look for upside.

Volatility Pivot As The Trade Driver

This elevated volatility didn’t come from nowhere, as we are still dealing with the persistent inflation we saw through late 2025. Last week’s jobs report showed wage growth holding at a stubborn 4.1%, and the latest CPI data for February 2026 came in at 3.5%, higher than expected. This data keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve and justifies why the VIX is holding well above its long-term average of around 19.5. The current environment feels very similar to the choppy markets we navigated back in 2022, where every rally was questioned due to the Fed’s aggressive stance. With the VIX staying above 25, history shows that sharp downward moves can happen with little warning. We should therefore treat any strength in the market with skepticism until volatility truly breaks down. For the stronger Dow and S&P 500, we need to see them hold above their key pivots at 46,600 and 6,627, respectively. If the VIX starts to fall while these levels hold, it would give us confidence to initiate cautious bullish positions, such as call spreads, to play for a move toward their upper ranges. This strategy allows for upside participation while clearly defining our risk if the market suddenly reverses. The Nasdaq remains our primary concern and the best hedge if things turn sour. Until it can reclaim its central pivot at 24,579, it is the most vulnerable to a spike in the VIX. If volatility rises and the Nasdaq fails to take that level, it would confirm a risk-off signal and make puts on the index an effective defensive trade. Over the next few weeks, our strategy should be reactive, not predictive. We must watch if the VIX accepts or rejects its 26.38 pivot, as this will dictate market direction. Trading the edges of the defined ranges—like the pivots and gates—will offer better opportunities than chasing moves in the middle of this uncertain structure. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account