Since 27 February, just before the Middle East conflict began, the Swiss franc has been the seventh best performing G10 currency. It has the same ranking over the past week and on a 1-day view, after the SNB increased warnings about FX intervention.
The SNB policy meeting on 19 March is being watched for any change in its messaging on intervention. The ECB policy announcement on the same day is also in focus, as any euro strength after the guidance could ease pressure on EUR/CHF.
EUR/CHF has been trading around 0.90 over a 1-to-3-month horizon. It briefly fell below 0.90 during the Asian session and also dipped under 0.90 on 9 March, reaching its lowest level since 15 January 2015.
On 15 January 2015, the SNB unexpectedly stopped defending the 1.20 level, which led to a sharp rise in the franc’s value. Market talk links the 0.90 area with potential SNB attention, although the SNB does not state a target level.
If the crisis extends or widens, the risk of a move below 0.90 increases.
Looking back at the analysis from March 2025, the focus was on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) defending the 0.90 level in EUR/CHF. Today, the situation has evolved significantly, with the pair trading much higher around 0.9450. The core tension is no longer about a floor defense but about the diverging paths of the SNB and the European Central Bank (ECB).
The SNB’s stance has become more dovish over the past year, as Swiss inflation fell to just 1.2% in February 2026, well within their target range. This contrasts with the Eurozone, where inflation remains stickier at 2.6%, making the ECB more hesitant to cut interest rates. This policy divergence is a key factor supporting a higher EUR/CHF exchange rate compared to the lows we saw in 2025.
For derivative traders, this changes the game from defense to managed offense. With the intense pressure off the 0.90 floor, one-month implied volatility has calmed to around 4.8%, far below the peaks seen during the geopolitical tensions of early 2025. Selling out-of-the-money puts, such as those with a 0.9200 strike, could be a strategy to collect premium while reflecting the view that the SNB will prevent significant franc strengthening.
The franc’s classic safe-haven status remains muted, a theme that has continued since last year. During the recent shipping lane disruptions in late 2025, the franc’s rally was notably weaker than that of the US dollar, confirming the market’s belief that the SNB’s tolerance for a stronger currency is extremely low. This institutional pressure effectively caps the franc’s appeal during times of global stress.
Given this context, we see opportunities in strategies that profit from either a slow grind higher or range-bound price action in EUR/CHF. A bull call spread, buying a 0.9500 call and selling a 0.9650 call, offers a defined-risk way to position for further modest upside driven by central bank policy. This approach is far different from the nervous selling of puts near the 0.90 “line in the sand” that defined trading a year ago.
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