A Reuters poll on Friday found 23 of 30 economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the Official Cash Rate to 4.10% on 17 March. Seven economists expect no change, compared with February’s poll that pointed to a steady rate at 3.85%. The median forecast now puts the cash rate at 4.35% by end-2026. At the time of writing, AUD/USD was up 0.12% on the day at 0.7085.

Rba Policy Framework

The RBA sets Australia’s interest rates and monetary policy through 11 scheduled meetings a year, plus emergency meetings if needed. Its mandate includes keeping inflation at 2–3% and supporting currency stability, full employment, and economic welfare. Raising rates tends to support the Australian Dollar, while lower rates tend to weaken it. Other tools include quantitative easing and quantitative tightening. Inflation and broader economic data can affect expectations for policy settings and, in turn, the currency. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment can feed into these expectations. Quantitative easing involves creating Australian Dollars to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds, which often weakens the AUD. Quantitative tightening ends net asset buying and reinvestment of maturing proceeds, which can support the AUD.

Market Backdrop And Implications

Looking back to this time in 2025, we saw a strong consensus forming for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate. That Reuters poll from a year ago showed an expectation for a hike to 4.10%. Today, the situation is more nuanced as the cash rate has been holding steady at 4.35% for the past six months. The main driver now is the conflict between sticky inflation and slowing growth. The latest data for the fourth quarter of 2025 showed headline inflation at 3.5%, which is still stubbornly above the RBA’s target band. This persistence keeps the possibility of another rate hike on the table for policy makers. However, we are seeing signs that past rate increases are cooling the economy. The national unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.2% in the latest report, and the last GDP figures showed only modest growth. This data suggests the RBA may be hesitant to tighten policy further and risk a more significant downturn. This uncertainty about the RBA’s next move suggests volatility in interest rate markets will increase. Derivative traders should consider strategies that profit from a large move, regardless of direction, such as buying options on bond futures ahead of the next RBA meeting. The pricing of such options indicates the market is anticipating a more decisive policy signal soon. For the currency, the AUD/USD is trading near 0.6650, much lower than the 0.7085 level seen this time last year. Given the potential for a sharp reaction to any RBA guidance, using currency options to hedge or establish new positions with defined risk is a prudent approach. A hawkish surprise could trigger a rally, while any dovish pivot would likely send the pair lower. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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