Oil Risk And Ringgit Outlook
If tensions stay elevated, Iran has cited the possibility of USD200 per barrel oil, which could restrain risk appetite. In that case, the ringgit’s early-week recovery may stall. On the daily chart, bullish momentum was described as fading and the RSI has fallen. Support is at 3.9150/80, with a break lower pointing to 3.90 and 3.88, while resistance is at 3.9550 and 3.9760, with 3.9760 marked as the 50-day moving average. Looking back at our analysis from 2025, the focus was on the Ringgit holding firm below 3.98. Today, on March 13, 2026, we are facing a different reality with the USD/MYR trading near 4.7500. The core drivers remain similar, hinging on global risk sentiment and oil price volatility. The warnings from Iran in 2025 about $200 oil did not fully materialize, but we did see Brent crude peak near $120/bbl late last year before easing. With Brent now hovering around a still-elevated $95/bbl, Malaysia’s status as a net oil exporter provides some support for the Ringgit, but not enough to reverse the broader trend. This partial benefit is being offset by persistent geopolitical risk premiums.Dollar Policy Divergence And Market Volatility
A significant factor now is the stronger US Dollar, a lesser concern when we were watching the 3.90 level. February’s US non-farm payrolls data came in stronger than expected at 275,000, causing markets to scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. This policy divergence is putting broad pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Ringgit. Given the conflicting signals, implied volatility on USD/MYR options has risen, with the 1-month tenor now priced near 8.5%. This environment suggests that simple directional bets are risky. Traders could consider strategies like long straddles to profit from a significant price move in either direction, capitalizing on the high uncertainty. The technical picture has shifted dramatically from the 3.9150 support we noted in 2025. We now see immediate support for USD/MYR at the 4.7200 level, with a break below potentially targeting 4.7000. Key resistance is forming at 4.7850, and a push through that level could challenge the year-to-date highs near 4.8000. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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