Silver (XAG/USD) traded near $89.55 on Tuesday, up 2.90% on the day. It was supported by a weaker US Dollar and lower US Treasury yields, which tend to aid non-yielding assets. Markets continued to price in possible Federal Reserve easing in the second half of the year. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 43.4% chance of the first rate cut in July and about 37% for June.

Drivers Behind The Move

Falling oil prices also reduced inflation worries. The G7 said it was ready to take “necessary measures” to support global energy supplies, according to Japan’s Industry Minister Ryosei Akazawa, cited by Reuters. The US–Iran conflict entered its eleventh day, with reports of airstrikes across the Middle East. Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz stayed high, supporting demand for safe-haven assets. Attention now turns to US data, with CPI due Wednesday and the PCE Price Index due Friday. A correction on March 10 at 17:25 GMT clarified the minister’s name as Ryosei Akazawa, not Yoji Muto Akazawa. Looking back at this time in 2025, we saw silver prices react strongly to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and rising geopolitical heat. Today, with the US-Iran conflict having de-escalated over the past year, the safe-haven premium has noticeably faded from the market. The primary drivers for silver have now shifted from short-term fear to long-term industrial demand.

Industrial Demand Takes Center Stage

The monetary policy outlook is also far different from the dovish sentiment we saw in early 2025. While the Fed did deliver two small rate cuts late last year, recent reports show core inflation has proven stubborn, holding at 2.8% and delaying any further easing. The CME FedWatch Tool now indicates less than a 20% probability of a rate cut before the fourth quarter of 2026, a stark contrast to the aggressive cuts priced in a year ago. This environment suggests traders should shift from speculating on Fed pivots to focusing on silver’s industrial role. Recent data from early 2026 shows a 9% year-over-year increase in silver consumption for photovoltaics and a 12% rise in demand from the electric vehicle sector. This provides a fundamental price floor that was less of a focus during the geopolitical turmoil of 2025. Given this, we are looking at derivative strategies that capitalize on this industrial-led demand over a longer horizon. Buying call options with strike prices in the low $90s with expirations in late 2026 or early 2027 allows traders to benefit from the steady demand trend. This contrasts with the shorter-dated options that were popular in 2025 to trade around monthly inflation reports. Implied volatility has also compressed significantly since the highs of the Middle East conflict last year, making options relatively cheaper. We believe selling cash-secured puts below current technical support levels around $80 could be an effective strategy. This approach allows traders to collect premium while expressing a view that strong industrial buying will limit significant downside. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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