Key Futures Levels In Focus
S&P 500 futures (ES) traded at 6,675, down 0.97%. Levels included TPO POC and VPOC/CP at 6,637, VAH/VAL 6,652/6,602, UG 6,659–6,679, UR 6,764, and LR 6,500. Nasdaq futures (NQ) traded at 24,381, down 1.20%. Key levels were TPO POC 24,275, VPOC/CP 24,328, VAH/VAL 24,325/24,075, UG 24,245–24,308, UR 24,579, and LR 23,753. Into New York, the focus is whether prices hold above reclaimed gates and pivots to extend the rebound, or slip back into lower zones. Relative strength into New York was ranked: 1) Nasdaq, 2) Dow, 3) S&P 500. We’re seeing a bounce in the London session, but the situation remains fragile after last week’s steep sell-off. The key question is whether New York will confirm this recovery or see it as a chance to sell at better prices. With the VIX, a key measure of market fear, having climbed back over 20 for the first time since October of 2025, underlying nervousness is high.New York Session Risk And Confirmation
Geopolitical risk is adding significant pressure, with oil prices jumping over 8% in two weeks to trade near $95 a barrel due to renewed Middle East tensions. This feeds directly into inflation fears, especially after the last CPI print in 2025 still came in at a stubborn 3.8%. For now, any rally in equities should be treated with caution, as energy shocks can quickly reverse positive sentiment. For Nasdaq futures, the key is seeing if we can hold above the 24,308 level. If buyers can keep the price above this zone, it signals the London recovery has strength and could push toward the 24,579 target. A failure to hold here would suggest this bounce is weak and the sellers from last week are still in control. The S&P 500 is in a tighter spot, trading inside its decision zone of 6,659–6,679. This is a critical test; holding this area keeps the recovery alive, but a drop back below 6,627 would signal the bounce is fading. We should watch this area for signs of whether buyers or sellers are winning the immediate fight. Dow futures have had a strong bounce but are now running directly into a major resistance zone around 47,297. We should be cautious about chasing this move higher right into a known selling area. A rejection here would likely send the price back down to test the 46,764 support level. We should remember the pullbacks we saw in the second half of 2025, where initial bounces often failed when faced with persistent inflation news. That period taught us that these recovery attempts need confirmation before we can trust them. Last week’s sell-off, which erased over 3.5% from the major indices, feels similar to those earlier tests, so we remain defensive. The plan for the coming days should be to watch if these key support levels hold during the New York session. Using options to define risk, like buying puts for downside protection or selling covered calls into resistance, could be a smart way to navigate this uncertainty. We should avoid taking large, directional bets until the market clearly accepts prices above these upper zones or breaks back down below them. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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