Monthly Wave Structure
Wave ((3)) is labelled as ending at $119.24, with wave ((4)) now in progress. The $16 level is treated as a key pivot for this structure. On the daily chart, the rise to $119.24 is counted as the end of wave ((3)). The current move is a wave ((4)) correction, described as a zigzag. In that zigzag, wave (A) ended at $91.31 and wave (B) ended at $118.85. Wave (C) is projected to move lower towards an inflection zone of $74–$91.10, where wave ((4)) is expected to finish. Based on the long-term wave count, we are in a corrective wave ((4)) pullback for the Silver Miners ETF (SIL). This move is a correction of the strong uptrend that started back in September 2022. The key area we are watching for this correction to end is the support zone between $74 and $91.10. This technical outlook is supported by recent fundamental data. The latest CPI report for February 2026 came in hotter than expected at 3.1%, suggesting inflation remains persistent and supportive of precious metals as a store of value. We believe this underlying inflation will help attract buyers as SIL approaches our target support zone.Options Positioning Approach
Furthermore, industrial demand for silver continues to accelerate, a trend we saw throughout 2025. A recent report from the International Energy Agency updated its 2026 forecast for solar installations upwards, citing massive new projects coming online which will require significant silver inputs. This provides a strong fundamental floor for silver prices and, by extension, the miners. For derivative traders, this setup suggests positioning for a bullish reversal in the coming weeks. As SIL descends into the $74-$91.10 inflection area, selling out-of-the-money put spreads with expirations in late April or May 2026 could be an effective way to collect premium. This strategy profits from both a price bounce and the passage of time. We can also look to history for a guide, as this type of sharp pullback resembles the consolidation we saw in late 2020 before the next major advance. Therefore, traders could consider buying call options or call spreads once the price action shows signs of stabilization within the support zone. Watch for a bullish divergence on the daily RSI as a potential entry signal. The primary risk to this outlook is a break below the $74 support level. A decisive close below this area would invalidate the current wave ((4)) interpretation and suggest a much deeper correction is underway. Traders should therefore place stops accordingly to manage their risk on any long positions initiated within the zone. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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