Mexico’s consumer confidence index rose to 44.5 in February, up from 44.3 in the previous month.
The increase was 0.2 points, indicating a small month-on-month improvement in sentiment.
We see the February consumer confidence reading of 44.5 as a subtle but positive signal for the Mexican economy. This slight increase shows that domestic demand remains resilient, which should provide a stable floor for the Mexican Peso. This continued stability is a key factor for our short-term outlook.
The strong Peso, which we saw appreciate through much of 2025, benefits from this kind of domestic strength. With Banxico holding interest rates steady at 11.00% in its February meeting, the carry trade remains attractive. Given that inflation has cooled to 4.1%, traders could use call options on the MXN to target a move stronger than 17.30 to the dollar.
This consumer optimism is also a bullish indicator for the local stock market, particularly for retail and financial sector names in the IPC index. We saw foreign direct investment hit a record of over $40 billion in 2025, driven by the nearshoring trend, and this confidence data suggests the benefits are being felt by the public. Buying futures on the IPC index is a direct way to position for a continued grind higher.
The data supports the view that economic volatility will remain low. Remittances, which exceeded $63 billion in 2025, continue to fuel consumer wallets and provide a consistent economic buffer. This environment makes selling out-of-the-money put options on Mexican equity ETFs an attractive strategy for generating income.
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