A prior February 11 update said that in pre-election years the NASDAQ 100 typically bottoms on 5 February, peaks around 15 February, dips towards 21 February, then rises to a 18 March high before falling until October. It also set an Elliott Wave downside area of 24,200 ± 200. The index bottomed on 5 February, peaked on 11 February, then made another low on 17 February, followed by a secondary high on 25 February. It then fell to its lowest level since the November 2025 low after joint military operations in Iran, but later erased Monday’s losses.

Elliott Wave Target Zone Reached

The 24,200 ± 200 target zone was met at the 24,315 low. Price is described as being at the same level as five months ago. The broader Elliott Wave count still points to about 26,600 for the red W-b, provided the index stays above warning levels. The text states daily moves can be noisy, with weekly giving structure and monthly setting the trend. The 26,600 area is calculated as 161.8% of the 2020-2021 rise: W-1 from 6,772 to 16,765 (9,993 points), W-2 at 10,440 on 13 October 2022, and W-3 target 10,440 + 9,992 × 1.618 = 26,608. Warning levels listed are 24,992, 24,795, 24,637, 24,497, and 24,315. As of today, March 5, 2026, we see the NASDAQ 100 has recovered strongly from the market’s reaction to the joint military operations in Iran. The index hit our target low of $24,315 and bounced, suggesting the immediate selling pressure is over. This price action reinforces the view that the market is setting up for one final rally.

Risk Levels Must Be Respected

For the next few weeks, the primary strategy is to position for an upward move toward the $26,600 target. With the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreating back under 16 after last week’s geopolitical spike, call options expiring in late March or mid-April have become more attractively priced. This short-term bullish outlook remains valid as long as the index holds above its recent lows. However, we must view this potential rally with caution, as it fits the historical pattern of a deceptive peak before a significant decline. We saw a similar setup in February 2020, when the market pushed to a new all-time high right before a sharp C-wave sell-off. These irregular B-waves are designed to draw in final buyers before the trend reverses. Therefore, as the index approaches the $26,600 level, traders should begin planning for the other side of the trade. The latest economic data showing core inflation remaining persistent at 3.6% could provide the fundamental reason for a market turn. Cautious traders might start buying longer-dated put options, for May or June, to prepare for a substantial drop. Strict risk management is essential, and the key warning levels must be respected. Any sustained break below the $24,992 and $24,795 supports would signal that the expected final rally is off the table. A move below Monday’s low of $24,315 would invalidate the entire bullish short-term structure. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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